47% of Merchants Say False Declines Cost Them Sales

Merchants are discovering that fraud is no longer a problem they can solve at checkout alone. It is a systems challenge that runs through every step of the payment flow, from onboarding to post-transaction disputes.

That is the central message of “Orchestrating Trust: The Future of Fraud Prevention in Payments,” the latest Payments Orchestration Tracker from PYMNTS Intelligence. The report argues that fraud orchestration has emerged as the connective layer that aligns security, customer experience and revenue protection in an increasingly complex payments environment.

The Tracker finds that fraud prevention has become more difficult not because merchants lack tools, but because they have too many of them. Digital commerce now spans cards, wallets, instant payments and embedded flows, each with its own risk signals and attack surfaces. Fraudsters exploit the gaps between these systems, shifting tactics as soon as defenses harden. Static rules catch familiar patterns but struggle with new ones. Machine learning tools flag anomalies but still need context. Orchestration brings these fragmented elements together into a single decision layer that can adapt in real time.

Rather than treating fraud as a stop-or-go decision at authorization, the report frames it as a continuous process. Risk builds before a transaction and can persist long after it clears. Orchestration allows merchants to apply the right level of scrutiny at the right moment, reducing unnecessary friction for trusted customers while tightening controls when risk rises. The goal is not simply fewer fraud losses, but stronger trust across the entire payment journey.

Three data points underscore why this shift matters:

85% of merchants say their biggest fraud challenge is reducing friction for legitimate customers while still preventing fraud. Security alone is no longer the metric of success.

47% of merchants estimate that up to 5% of legitimate orders are incorrectly declined as fraudulent, contributing to an estimated $50 billion in lost revenue across the industry.

53% of U.S. financial institutions already use a fraud orchestration solution, with another 16% actively implementing one and 26% planning adoption, signaling that orchestration is moving into the mainstream.

Beyond these headline findings, the report highlights how fraud orchestration is reshaping operational strategy. Many merchants now manage five or more payment integrations. Each additional tool adds cost, complexity and potential failure points. Orchestration reduces redundancy by sequencing risk checks intelligently, much like an air traffic controller directs planes. Trusted customers move through with minimal friction. Suspicious activity triggers deeper verification. Operational teams gain centralized visibility instead of juggling disconnected dashboards.

The Tracker also links fraud orchestration to broader cost pressures. While 63% of merchants plan to increase spending on fraud technologies, more than half expect staffing budgets to remain flat or decline. Orchestration supports this shift by automating decisioning, reducing manual reviews and enabling rapid testing of new tools without heavy engineering work. Fraud management becomes more scalable and less dependent on human intervention.

Crucially, the report stresses that orchestration does not end when a transaction is approved. Modern fraud strategies extend across onboarding, account changes, transaction monitoring and dispute management. Integrating fraud orchestration into open payments platforms allows merchants to align risk decisions with routing and authorization strategies, protecting both approval rates and customer experience.

Fraud is evolving too quickly for isolated defenses. Coordination is now the differentiator. For merchants and financial institutions, orchestration is becoming the foundation of trust in digital payments.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.