Economists Upbeat On Jobs, Wages — But Not Because Of Tax Reform

A new survey from the National Association for Business Economists suggests economists are optimistic about U.S. wages and employment, though not yet because of tax reform.

Reports in Fortune said the NABE’s Business Conditions Survey, published Monday (July 16), found 68 percent of the 98 economists surveyed predict businesses will see increased sales in the next three months. Ninety-four percent said the industry most likely to see sales rise is the goods-producing market. All of the survey respondents expect national GDP to grow in the coming year.

U.S. economists are also predicting job growth in the coming quarter, with the survey’s Net Rising Index for employment increasing to an all-time high in July.

“Labor market conditions are tight, with skilled labor shortages driving firms to raise pay, increase training and consider additional automation,” said NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Sara Rutledge in a statement.

In line with previous research, NABE’s report noted that these trends are not yet linked to tax reform. Most of the economists surveyed said that President Donald Trump’s tax overhauls have not yet impacted investment or hiring decisions in the nation’s business community; nearly two-thirds of respondents said import tariffs have not impacted investing, hiring or pricing, either.

Earlier research published by the Association for Financial Professionals in May found that corporates in the U.S. are not increasing their spending as a result of tax reform. Its Corporate Cash Indicators report found businesses say global trade disputes are among the largest factors preventing them from boosting investments, with corporates revealing a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year increase in cash holdings.

“The optimism generated from corporate tax reform seems to have done little to persuade organizations to spend their cash during the early months of 2018,” AFP President and CEO Jim Kaitz said in a statement at the time.