The 2024 Certainty Project Report

How the C-Suite Fights Uncertainty With New Workflows and Analytics Tools

December 2024

High levels of uncertainty impacted operations and decision-making for 3 in 10 middle-market firms throughout 2024 — with the finance, food and transportation sectors more likely to face volatile conditions than others. In fact, data shows that surveyed middle-market firms navigating high uncertainty lost more than twice the average percentage of revenue. These pressures tested firms, but a year of research reveals leaders’ actionable strategies for navigating volatility.

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    Uncertainty for a middle-market business means facing unpredictable market conditions and fluctuating demand. This can complicate decision-making, increase risks and challenge long-term strategic planning. Middle-market firms have faced evolving sources of uncertainty in the last year. Industries like finance, food and transportation have experienced the most impact. Fraud, macroeconomic pressures and cash flow challenges disrupted operations, driving revenue losses for high-uncertainty firms to 13% — well above the 6.2% average reported across the middle market. These pressures amplified inefficiencies and customer churn, exposing gaps in traditional risk management approaches.

    High-uncertainty firms face broader challenges, including macroeconomic issues and fraud, with more substantial impacts on profits and customer retention.

    In response, CFOs and other C-suite leaders introduced new processes and workflows and relied heavily on analytics-driven insights to combat these challenges. These strategies demanded greater agility but better prepared these firms to stabilize operations and navigate fluctuating customer demand.

    By balancing the addition of new and more streamlined processes and bringing in external partners, high-uncertainty firms improved their resilience. These approaches illustrate actionable pathways for leaders in volatile corners of the middle market to manage risks while positioning their organizations for long-term stability.

    This report draws from PYMNTS Intelligence’s nine surveys since February 2024 and represents 540 respondents. The most recent survey of 60 executives was held from Oct. 4 to Oct. 17. This special report examines how C-suite executives addressed uncertainty throughout 2024, providing a year-end retrospective on the strategies that succeeded and the operational shifts that defined the year.

    Challenges and Support Strategies for High-Uncertainty Firms

    Who are the middle-market players facing higher levels of uncertainty?

    The smallest and largest middle-market firms tend to bear the brunt of high uncertainty. Among firms generating between $100 million and $250 million in annual revenue, 35% report operating in high-uncertainty environments. These firms lead in all the revenue groups we studied. The largest players — those generating $750 million to $1 billion in revenue —also report high levels of uncertainty at above-average rates. Smaller firms often lack the resources and diversification to buffer against shocks, while larger firms face complexity and exposure to global markets. This makes these larger firms more susceptible to external uncertainties.

    Industry segmentation reveals similar disparities. For example, 30% of service-oriented firms experience high uncertainty. However, smaller middle-market firms can improve their predictability in affordable ways by using analytics tools to gain insights into market trends and operational efficiencies, allowing for data-driven decision-making. Additionally, working with external partners, such as industry networks or specialized consultants, can provide shared expertise and resources without needing a significant budget increase.

    Perceived uncertainty levels are the highest in the finance, food, and transportation sectors.

    Some industries grapple with higher uncertainty levels more than others. For instance, finance, food and transportation are the most affected. These sectors’ heightened vulnerability stems in no small part from their exposure to macroeconomic instability. Regulatory pressures and supply chain disruptions can become greater problems for these businesses. Finance and insurance firms top the list, with 47% operating with a high level of uncertainty. Food and beverage firms follow at 41%, and transportation at 39%. These industries are particularly exposed to regulatory pressures, supply chain volatility and fraud risks, which amplify their uncertainty.

    Thirty-one percent of firms from the technology and information sector and 27% of the manufacturing sector face higher uncertainty levels. Still, both groups report slightly lower exposure than the most heavily affected industries. On the other side, 16% of energy firms are least likely to report operating in high levels of uncertainty. These firms may benefit from relatively stable demand or predictable cost structures.

    These trends indicate that firms in finance, food and transportation with high uncertainty could focus on investments in supply chain resilience and compliance. Firms with moderate exposure, such as those in manufacturing, may be best served focusing on scalable solutions like process automation.

    Strategies That Worked to Mitigate Uncertainty: Process Efficiency and Analytics

    High-uncertainty firms face broader challenges and more substantial impacts than others.

    CFOs began using an average of nine distinct strategies to address uncertainty. This is more than heads of payment (7.6 strategies) and heads of product (6.8 strategies). This reflects the broader scope of responsibilities CFOs manage, including oversight of financial planning, risk management and resource allocation. Their role also affords them greater influence over budget decisions, allowing them to drive a wider range of initiatives. By identifying and addressing inefficiencies or bottlenecks, businesses can better anticipate challenges, improve resource allocation and adapt more effectively to external changes.

    Using analytics to gain actionable insights significantly outperformed basic data collection, which was 66% effective for CFOs. Analytics-driven approaches achieved an 89% success rate, allowing leaders to anticipate customer demand shifts, optimize pricing and manage cash flow more effectively. High-uncertainty firms leaned heavily on these tools, often supplementing internal efforts with external partnerships and informal advice to address complex challenges.

    Workflow automation and process improvements also played pivotal roles. High-uncertainty firms reported a success rate of 87% for initiatives involving process automation and 78% for training existing personnel. Half of high-uncertainty firms invested in new processes recently, with 34% adopting process automation and 42% prioritizing workforce upskilling. These efforts try to align internal resources with strategic goals, reducing inefficiencies and improving resilience.

    Workforce investments further enhanced these strategies. CFOs saw an 82% success rate in mitigating uncertainty when adding new skills to their teams, underscoring the value of strategic upskilling. Heads of product and payment saw similar benefit from these efforts, reporting similar gains in team efficiency and adaptability.

    The integration of analytics and workflow redesign allowed firms to transition from reactive to proactive uncertainty management. By focusing on immediate challenges and building long-term stability, these strategies reinforced the C-suite’s ability to lead through uncertain times, driving success.

    The CFO’s Evolving Role in Uncertain Times

    CFOs lead cross-functional efforts to manage uncertainty.

    CFOs played a central role in leading their organizations through this year of increased uncertainty. Their leadership extended across multiple domains, with a clear focus on using a wide range of volatility mitigating and efficiency driving. These include adding new workflows, automation and enhancing team capabilities. These efforts reflected their broader responsibilities within the C-suite, positioning them as the driving force behind operational resilience and transformation.

    Heads of payment and CFOs reported significant success rates with new workflow initiatives. These workflows addressed key challenges, including fluctuations in customer demand and operational inefficiencies.

    Uncertainty’s financial costs, naturally, also shaped CFOs’ priorities. Data shows high-uncertainty firms faced more significant impacts, but CFOs responded with tailored strategies. These approaches included improving liquidity management and streamlining operational processes. Investments in process automation (reported by 50% of survey respondents) and workforce upskilling (48%) showed their commitment to building organizational resilience. Adding new skills to their teams proved successful, with an 82% success rate in mitigating uncertainty. This success rate highlights the importance of adaptive workforce strategies.

    By aligning their leadership with strategic investments, CFOs emerged as pivotal figures in steering middle-market firms through a year of shifting uncertainty. Their comprehensive approach to uncertainty management provides a model for other organizations facing similar challenges.

    82%

    SUCCESS RATE OF HIRING PERSONNEL WITH NEW SKILLS AT MITIGATING UNCERTAINTY AS REPORTED BY CFOs

    Six in 10 expect reduced uncertainty next year.

    Perceptions of future uncertainty vary significantly among C-suite roles, shaped by their unique responsibilities and the specific challenges they manage. Heads of payments often deal with operational complexities like supply chain integrity and transaction errors, and are notably less optimistic about improving conditions.

    Among firms operating in a high level of uncertainty, 52% of CFOs and 54% of heads of product expect uncertainty to ease in the next year; just 29% of heads of payments share this view. This stark contrast highlights the increased pressures heads of payments face in high-uncertainty environments, which likely dampens their confidence compared to peers in other roles.

    In contrast, heads of payments demonstrate similar levels of optimism to their peers in medium- and low-uncertainty conditions. For medium uncertainty, expectations of improvement are relatively aligned, with 57% of CFOs, 59% of heads of product and 69% of heads of payments expressing positive expectations. Among firms operating with low uncertainty, optimism rises further across all roles, with 77% of CFOs, 67% of heads of payments and 61% of heads of product expecting conditions to improve.

    Overall, these findings suggest that the perception of uncertainty improvement varies by role and the level of uncertainty faced. Heads of payments remain the least optimistic group in high-uncertainty settings, reflecting the operational complexities they must manage.

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    Methodology

    C-Suite Leads Efficiency Gains in New Workflows and Analytics Insight in 2024,” a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive report, is based on a series of monthly surveys, held from February 2024 to October 2024. The report examines how middle-market firms adopted transformative strategies to manage uncertainty, emphasizing workflows and analytics. Our sample throughout the year featured 540 respondents, including CFOs, heads of payment and heads of product from middle-market firms with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion.

    About

    PYMNTS INTELLIGENCE

    PYMNTS Intelligence is a leading global data and analytics platform that uses proprietary data and methods to provide actionable insights on what’s now and what’s next in payments, commerce and the digital economy. Its team of data scientists include leading economists, econometricians, survey experts, financial analysts and marketing scientists with deep experience in the application of data to the issues that define the future of the digital transformation of the global economy. This multilingual team has conducted original data collection and analysis in more than three dozen global markets for some of the world’s leading publicly traded and privately held firms.

    The PYMNTS Intelligence team that produced this report:

    Yvonni Markaki, PhD: SVP, Data Products
    Adam Putz, PhD: Senior Writer
    Matt Vuchichevich: Senior Content Editor, Head of Reports


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