Restaurant Sales Fell In February, But Coming Months Look Promising

February may have been a good month for the restaurant industry in terms of job gains, but sales tell a different story. The National Restaurant Association, the “largest foodservice trade association in the world,” which represents over 500,000 U.S. restaurant businesses, reported on Tuesday (March 16) that sales dipped in February after a strong January. In the prior month, “Total Eating and Drinking Place Sales” came to $55.6 billion, a 9.2 percent jump up from the end of 2020. In February, however, these sales slightly fell to $54.2 billion, a 2.5 percent decrease from the previous month.

“The recent uptick in consumer spending likely reflected the additional economic impact payments that were deployed early in the year,” wrote the National Restaurant Association’s Chief Economist Bruce Grindy. “As the next round of stimulus checks hits bank accounts, consumers should once again be poised to burn off some of their accumulated pent-up demand for restaurants.”

February’s sales remained above November/December 2020 levels, at $53.5 billion and $50.9 billion respectively, but they were still 17 percent lower than February 2020’s volume, $65.3 billion. In part, these low sales may be due to cold temperatures, when much of on-premises dining remains restricted to the outdoors amid continuing virus outbreaks. The average temperature in the 48 contiguous U.S. states was 30.6°F for the month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, significantly colder than January’s 34.6°F.

In addition to improving weather conditions and March’s round of stimulus checks, restaurants can also look forward to $28.6 billion in relief pouring into the industry in coming months, per the American Rescue Plan, the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill signed into law last Thursday (March 11).

“The creation of the Restaurant Revitalization Fund will be a catalyst to reviving restaurants and saving jobs across the country,” said association President and CEO Tom Bené in the association’s statement. “…This fund is a win for the smallest and hardest-hit restaurants that have sacrificed and innovated to continue to serve their communities.”

Additionally, per NPR’s count on Thursday (March 18), more than 22 percent of Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccination. As immunity spreads throughout the country, more consumers will return to restaurants, indulging their pent-up demand for dining experiences. PYMNTS data found that 61 percent of consumers are interested in eating out in restaurants more often than they currently do, with the highest-income consumers the most eager to dine out. As these consumers trickle back into restaurants for on-premises dining, sales will likely see a boost in the coming months.

It is on restaurants, however, to retain the share of sales they are likely to earn back, parlaying this burst of enthusiasm into long-term habits. In the last 12 months, consumers have grown used to relying on grocery shopping to meet the bulk of their food needs. To win back these consumers, restaurants will need to use habit-forming tools like loyalty rewards and seamless mobile ordering technologies, integrating themselves back into diners’ daily routines.