Report: China’s Singles Day Retail Growth Expected to be Weakest Ever

China’s Singles Day — a weeks-long shopping event that has become a key measure of consumer demand in the country — has reportedly seen a lackluster response this year.

Analysts expect that the increases in gross merchandise value (GMV) seen by eCommerce firms that have been promoting the event will be the weakest ever. For example, Citi predicts a range of 0.9% to 3.6%, which would be down from 8.5% in 2021 and 26% in 2020, Reuters reported Friday (Nov. 11).

Consumer sentiment in China has been dampened by pandemic restrictions, a slowing economy and a reduction of promotion around the event after the country’s president, Xi Jinping, discouraged “excessive behaviors,” according to the report.

As PYMNTS reported Friday, Singles Day was launched in 2009 as a one-day event held on Nov. 11 and meant for those who aren’t in relationships but has expanded to begin two weeks earlier and be promoted to all Chinese consumers.

In 2020, consumers spent over $74 billion on the online shopping platforms of Alibaba alone during an event that had grown to include 11 days.

For comparison, United States eCommerce sales during Amazon’s 48-hour Prime Day event in June 2020 totaled about $11 billion.

This year, before the Singles Day event began, retail sales in China had already been slowing, as a 5.4% gain in August was followed by a 2.5% rise in September, CNN Business reported Friday.

Market watchers attributed this general economy-wide slowdown to uncertain macroeconomic conditions, declining consumer confidence, the country’s COVID-19 policy, government regulation of the tech industry and a maturing market in which the rate of growth is likely to slow, according to the report.

In addition, there’s been a trend toward retailers hosting sales events — and consumers buying their products — throughout the year rather than waiting for Singles Day, the report stated.

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