Mastercard Projects 15% Growth in Black Friday Spending

Mastercard is offering a sunny forecast for Black Friday, with its SpendingPulse report projecting a 15% growth in retail sales on the day after Thanksgiving.

“Expect Black Friday shopping to be in full force across channels this year,” Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated, said in a news release Tuesday (Nov. 15) accompanying the report. “While retailers have already been heavily discounting this season, consumers and retailers are likely holding out for some special offers to land on the biggest promotional day of the year.”

The report predicts trends such as robust indoor shopping, driven by the “post-pandemic return of doorbusters, window displays and brick-and-mortar collaborations,” all adding up to an 18% increase in in-store retail sales.

In addition, the report says department store sales will increase by more than 25% year-over-year as consumers take advantage of deals and the chance to get all their gifts in one place.

The report came one day after Amazon announced it would launch its 48 hours of Black Friday deals on Thanksgiving Day while conducting product drops before and after that time.

The eCommerce giant will offer early deals before the main event begins and promotional offers extending past the 48-hour event. In this, the company continues the strategy of extending Black Friday promotions beyond the original event that for years was limited to the day after Thanksgiving.

For example, as PYMNTS reported earlier this month, Walmart is continuing its “Black Friday Deals for Days” strategy, which includes sales events each Monday throughout November, while Target has announced “Weeklong Black Friday Deals.”

This year, the strategy has been driven partly by consumer caution driven by inflation. With discretionary spending declining and inventory sitting in warehouses, retailers are stepping up their markdowns and promotions.

The SpendingPulse report doesn’t predict upticks in shopping. It expects restaurants to see yearly growth of more than 35% as consumers dine out on Black Friday. Airlines and hotels could see increases in sales of 39% and 32%, respectively, the report says.

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