Report: Job Growth In Next Decade Predicted Slower Than Great Recession

U.S. employment is projected to increase by 6 million jobs over the decade from 2019 through 2029.

But the annual growth rate is slower than during the economy’s recovery from the Great Recession, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In a report issued Tuesday (Sept. 1), the BLS projected employment will grow from 163 million to 169 million over the decade.

This reflects an annual growth rate of 0.4 percent. That’s less than the 2009-19 annual growth rate of 1.3 percent, bolstered by the recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-09.

The labor force participation rate, the number of working-age Americans who are employed or are looking for a job, is expected to rise by 8 million from 163.5 million in 2019 to 171.5 million in 2029.

That represents a drop of nearly 2 percent to 61.2 percent in 2029, down from 63.1 percent last year. The decline is predicted as baby boomers age, a continuation of the declining trend in men working and a slight dip in women workers.

The numbers do not factor in COVID-19.

The healthcare sector is expected to account for nearly half of the 30 fastest growing occupations from 2019 to 2029 as demand for healthcare services by baby boomers increases and those with chronic conditions drive the projected employment growth.

“Factors that are expected to contribute to the large increase include increased demand to care for the aging baby-boom population, longer life expectancies, and continued growth in the number of patients with chronic conditions,” according to the survey.

At 1.8 percent annually, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total value of goods produced and services provided, is projected to be slower from 2019 to 2029, compared to the previous decade when GDP was 2.3 percent.

Manufacturing is projected to lose 444,800 jobs, the most of any sector through 2029, the report said. Factors contributing to the loss of manufacturing jobs include the adoption of automation technologies, such as robotics and global competition, researchers wrote.

The nation’s economy added 1.8 million jobs in July, slightly better than analysts’ expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Labor Department reported last month.

Last week, the number of Americans who filed for jobless claims exceeded 1 million, down slightly compared to the previous week, the U.S. Department of Labor reported.

For the week ending Aug. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week’s revised level.