Bridging 2015 To 2016 With Numbers

Analysts have yet to exhaust their forecasting efforts, gazing into crystal balls to assess where 2016 will lead. In FinTech, that means taking a look at the data from 2015, comparing it to the most recent figures and calculating trends for the year — and decade — ahead.

In this week’s B2B Data Digest, researchers dug into the numbers of the trends of 2015, including alternative lending volumes, small business growth and operation and technological adoption. But they aren’t just looking in the rearview mirror; the numbers are used to juxtapose where these industries stood last year compared to this.

Below, take a look at the data points that bridge a retrospective look of 2015 with a predictive assessment of 2016.

2.7 Trillion: The value, in U.S. dollars, that the Internet of Things market is expected to reach by 2022 for the sector focused on improving supply chain operations and logistics. That’s according to new statistics from Cisco, which also calculated the overall IoT industry to be worth $14.4 trillion by that time. While IoT has caught attention for its ability to provide consumers with smart homes and interconnected mobile devices, the B2B sector stands to see some of the greatest impact from machine learning and the Internet of Things, with manufacturing seeing some of the greatest adoption of this technology today, researchers said.

200: The percentage that crowdfunding and alternative small business lending has increased in the Netherlands. In other words, according to data from Douw & Koren, Dutch alt-lending doubled in 2015 compared to the year before, reaching $138 million worth of small business loans (compared to just $68 million raised in 2014). Startups secured an average of $97,500 per deal, analysts added, and researchers expect this type of growth to continue in this market.

77.3: The percentage of businesses surveyed by North Bridge Growth Equity and Venture Partners that reported having some type of cloud-based service in place within the company. That represents a 9 percent increase between 2014 and 2015, researchers said. The biggest surprise? According to analysts, HR and payroll operations were least expected to see disruption from the cloud industry; today, nearly three-quarters of businesses’ HR and payroll functions live in the cloud. 

55: The percentage of small business owners without an ethics policy in place for their companies, according to research from banking group Close Brothers. Without a code of ethics, researchers concluded, employees aren’t adequately guided as to how they should interact with suppliers, clients and each other. Close Brothers Asset Finance CEO Mike Randall announced the findings while highlighting the financial implications of a lack of an ethics policy.

“With business growth high on the agenda for many SME owners in 2016, the importance of good ethical behavior will play an increasing role in how their businesses are perceived, both internally and externally,” he stated. “Discussions around ethical policies must be a priority if businesses are to reach their full potential.”

40: The percentage that traditional bank lending volume to SMEs in London has decreased in just one year, according to the British Bankers’ Association’s latest numbers. The value of SME loans hit just over $1.45 billion (£1 billion) in Q3 2015, compared to $2.47 billion (£1.7 billion) lent out in the same period one year prior. The BBA also noted that the value of each loan provided to SMEs has also decreased, with the average amount hitting less than $29,000 (£20,000) per loan. That compares with the average loan size of about $40,600 (£28,000) seen in 2011. On the other hand, analysts found that SMEs in London accessed more than $500 million (£350 million) through alternative lending platforms in Q3, meaning the Netherlands isn’t the only market witnessing significant alt-lending growth.

31: The percentage of small businesses surveyed by CBIZ that increased heads on their payroll in Dec. 2015. The statistics were published Thursday (Jan. 7) and revealed better-than-expected labor performance in the SME community to close out the year. Analysts called this report “an unusually strong reading for this time of year,” noting that the index, which hit a 1.89 percent increase between November and December, landed at an 81 percent increase from the same month in 2014. The CBIZ Small Business Employment Index noted that despite the optimism, economic worries regarding China and North Korea may lead to a slip in SME employment performance in the next report.

For 2016, the numbers suggest growth in a number of B2B markets: Internet of Things, alternative lending, cloud computing and perhaps even job growth. But that doesn’t mean everything this year is up: Traditional SME lending, for instance, continues its decline, while SMEs will likely want to take a look at their ethics policies to ensure healthy buyer-supplier relations and continued growth.