In the week since South African health officials first alerted the world to the existence of the omicron variant, families and friends have begun considering amended holiday plans as people rush to get vaccines and booster shots.
The omicron variant — which is still being studied by scientists but has the potential to lead to surges of COVID-19 around the world — also has some people rethinking the gifts they’ll be giving this year. Maybe that new luggage set, movie passes or plane tickets can wait until next year.
While some holiday shopping predictions from earlier this year have come true — shopping did indeed start earlier, with 48% making purchases before Thanksgiving, and people are continuing to shop online in droves — National Retail Federation CEO Matt Shay said Tuesday (Nov. 30) on a conference call with reporters that omicron could disrupt spending patterns this holiday season and direct more dollars to physical items.
“We know, unfortunately, that when the variants have had a real impact on the economy, the goods side of the economy has actually benefited from that because people change behavior away from the experience side of the economy and spend more time and more dollars engaged in the goods side of the economy,” he said
Related: Retailers Set For Another Unprecedented Holiday Season
Indeed, during Black Friday, the top items purchased were clothes, toys and hobby equipment, shoes, and electronics, according to PYMNTS’ study of consumers’ Black Friday behavior. Handbags, designer or luxury fashion, and motor vehicles were among the least purchased items — all products associated to some degree with getting out and traveling.
PYMNTS’ data come from a survey of 2,060 U.S. consumers on Friday (Nov. 26) and Saturday (Nov. 27) about how they spent their Black Fridays to learn more about how consumers shopped and paid for the items on their holiday wish lists.
Read more from the study: Inventory Stockouts Cost Retailers Up To $4.6B On Black Friday
Alternative Gifts
That isn’t to say, though, that experiences won’t be a key part of this holiday season. After nearly two years of restrictions and pandemic concerns, consumers have a lot of pent-up demand, as demonstrated by the fact that 45% of Black Friday shoppers spent more this year than they did in 2020, and the desire for something more personal than a sweater.
“Something like a subscription, whether it’s a box or curation or the ability to select portions of a gift for oneself or services like MasterClass, all provide a degree of personalization,” Brett McLaughlin, chief technology officer at sticky.io, told PYMNTS in October. “That goes back to the original thinking of wanting to show the recipient, ‘I know you in some way, I’ve thought about you,’ rather than just sending the $50 card that opens up at Starbucks.”
For retailers, subscriptions could also be a way to work around supply chain bottlenecks plaguing companies around the world — for example, McLaughlin said, a subscription may be gifted on Christmas, but the first physical item might not come in the mail until January, which also extends the life of the gift.
Read more: Subscriptions, Personalization Could Be Retail’s Bright Spot This Holiday
“The retailers and platforms won’t just see more satisfied customers, but also larger sales,” he said. “And it enables them to capture long-term relationships in a way that goes well beyond the customer buying whatever the craziest toy is for twice the price on eBay and then making a run for the hills.”
Others, such as Brett Narlinger, head of global commerce at Blackhawk Network, suggest that gift cards may be the hottest item this year, with consumers surveyed by the company saying they’ll be doing as much as 41% of their holiday shopping via gift cards this year. The average consumer is expected to purchase 15 prepaid cards this year, a 50% year-over-year increase and a 200% jump versus 2019.
Related: Inventory Shortages Could Make Holiday 2021 The Year of the Gift Card
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