Discovered in South Africa on Nov. 25 with the first North American cases appearing in days, the new COVID-19 variant designated as Omicron is living up to its more transmissible reputation — but it’s possible this mutation will be taken in stride by pandemic-hardened consumers.
As the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that “the overall global risk related to the new variant of concern Omicron is assessed as very high,” Reuters reported on Monday (Nov. 29) that Japan and Israel were among the first nations to reinstitute travel restrictions.
The appearance of a new COVID variant as Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales kicked in might be cause for concern, were it not for the digital-first shopping habits acquired since 2020.
Even as the Omicron news was breaking worldwide on Friday (Nov. 26), a PYMNTS survey taken Nov. 26-27 found that 65% of the 143 million U.S. consumers planning to buy gifts made at least one purchase on Black Friday, with online attracting 13% more shoppers than stores.
Only days into the Omicron variant discovery, it’s impossible to say whether more profound effects will be felt as heavy seasonal shopping happens over the next two to three weeks. However, the U.S. and other major economies appear to be well-positioned for another COVID holiday should it come to that, as evidenced by the strength of Black Friday online sales.
Digital-First Lessening COVID Fears
Thanks to 20 months of heavy investment in digital technologies and corresponding logistical support from ports down to ride-hailing services, the connected economy is developing its own immunity against periodic pandemic flareups, turning down the panic volume considerably.
In the most recent installment of PYMNTS “Pandenomics” report series chronicling consumer and business sentiment toward the pandemic, high-earning and high-spending millennials are most concerned with future COVID outbreaks and variants, but money concerns are greater.
Per that study, “consumers are no longer as worried about becoming ill as they once were,” with 62% of all consumers saying they are more worried about ongoing economic impacts.
Rising vaccination rates and falling hospitalizations are making consumers steadily more confident about certain activities, namely air travel and on-premise restaurant dining.
How Omicron may impact the reopenings that are widely underway in the U.S. right now is unknown.
According to “The Post-Pandemic Consumer at 18 Months” study, however, “dining out at restaurants is the first thing on consumers’ ‘post-pandemic’ to-do list, followed closely by leisure traveling within the U.S.,” with 27% of all consumers planning to dine out more often through the end of 2021, and 27% planning to travel more domestically.
Get the study: The Post-Pandemic Consumer at 18 Months: Spending Now, Worrying Later
Early Signs Are Mixed
What Omicron may do to the improving fortunes of airlines, hotels, restaurants and other mask-mandatory modes of mobility and spending has some market watchers in suspense.
Several airline stocks fell on the news of Omicron, particularly in the Asia-Pacific Region. As MarketWatch reported on Sunday (Nov. 28), “Airline and travel-related stocks were broadly lower in early Asian trade, weighed by investor concerns over the spread of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which has prompted tighter border controls in some countries.”
Of potentially greater concern are retailers’ inventory positions as serious buying begins. Among observations in PYMNTS’ Black Friday survey was the fact that supply chain snags combined with healthy purchasing caused inventory stockouts to shake the shopping holiday.
Per the study, 55 million people representing 38% of U.S. shoppers were unable to buy at least one of the items they sought. As PYMNTS reported, “consumers intended to spend $253 on these out-of-stock items on average. Retailers, therefore, lost a collective total of up to $30 billion.”
However, Omicron fears didn’t register with the Black Friday shoppers surveyed by PYMNTS. With 47% of shoppers reporting that they plan to do most of their shopping online for home delivery this year, renewed COVID fears may not be enough to dampen pent-up demand.
See results: Inventory Stockouts Cost Retailers up to $4.6B on Black Friday
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