Online Merchandise Return Rate Expected to Drop in 2022

Consumers are expected to return less of the merchandise they purchase online this year.

The online merchandise return rate is expected to drop from 20.8% in 2021 to 16.5% in 2022. This will be the first year in which the online return rate is equal to the overall merchandise return rate, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Appriss Retail said in a Wednesday (Dec. 14) press release.

The overall merchandise return rate — including both online and brick-and-mortar sales — is also expected to be 16.5% in 2022. That’s about the same as the 16.6% return rate recorded in 2021, even though retail sales are expected to be between 6% and 8% higher year over year, according to the release.

“Even with 29 continuous months of retail sales growth, consumers have remained steady with the overall rate of merchandise returned to retailers this year,” NRF Vice President of Research Development and Industry Analysis Mark Mathews said in the release.

This return rate is measured in terms of dollar value — so for every $1 billion in sales, a retailer must deal with $165 million in returns. In 2022, the merchandise returns are expected to total $816 billion, according to the release.

The survey also found that among the returned merchandise accepted by retailers, 10.4% is identified as return fraud.

The most common forms of return fraud are returns of used, non-defective merchandise, shoplifted or stolen merchandise, and organized retail crime. The share of retailers reported that they had experienced these types of retail fraud is 50%, 41.4% and 20%, respectively.

The merchandise return rate is expected to be 1.4 percentage points higher during the holiday season, with the rate running at 17.9% during that time.

“The holidays typically include a spike in retail activity, but higher return rates can also impact profitability,” Appriss Retail CEO Steve Prebble said in the release. “Retailers must look for ways to individualize the returns process through data-driven insights. This will minimize the risk of accepting fraudulent returns while enhancing the customer experience for loyal shoppers.”

PYMNTS research has found that during the pandemic, consumers got into the habit of checking return policies just as often as they checked delivery timeframes and shipping costs.

Return abuse — when a consumer returns an item that is not eligible for return — impacts nearly 60% of large retailers, according to “Beyond eCommerce Fraud,” a PYMNTS and Forter collaboration.

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